MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NZGBS: Closed Slightly Cheaper Ahead Of Tomorrow’s RBNZ Policy Decision

BONDS

NZGBs closed 2bps cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today's local session. In the absence of domestic data, local participants have been content to sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ Policy Decision.

  • The RBNZ is probably still “watching, worrying and waiting” thus there is no incentive to change rates in either direction. While we don’t expect a rate hike, we believe the RBNZ will want to keep policy and thus financial conditions restrictive until it is confident that inflation will or has returned sustainably to the 1-3% target band.
  • Given we expect the tightening bias to be retained, we also expect that the MPC will discuss a rate hike but then opt for no change. Updated staff forecasts will be presented and will be monitored for changes to the OCR path and CPI forecasts, especially upward revisions.
  • There's a 27% probability priced in for a 25bp hike at this week's meeting, with an anticipated terminal OCR of 5.65% (reflecting a 60% probability of a 25bp hike) by the May meeting. By year-end, a cumulative 41bps of easing is factored into the pricing.
  • See the full preview here.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 4bp lower, with implied swap spreads sharply narrower.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.