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BONDS: NZGBs Curve Steepens, PMI Further Contracts In November

BONDS
  • The NZGB curve has steepened slightly this morning, outperforming moves made overnight in US Tsys, where yields rose 4-7bps, following stronger-than expected US PPI data, coming in at +0.4% (0.38% unrounded) M/M vs 0.3% prior (0.25%, reflecting an upward revision from 0.20% initial). The core indices were cooler though: ex-food/energy registered 0.2% (from 0.3% prior, in line with expectations) and the more important ex-food/energy/trade services printed an 18-month low of 0.05% unrounded (0.34% prior, and vs 0.2% expected).
  • NZ's manufacturing sector remained in contraction in November, with the PMI edging down to 45.5 from 45.7 in October. Declines in production (42.5) and new orders (44.8) drove the weakness, while employment (46.9), finished stocks (49.3), and deliveries (49.9) showed modest improvements.
  • NZ's net migration gain for the year ended October 31 was 38,776, the lowest since December 2022, down from a revised 42,660 in September. Non-citizens accounted for a net inward migration of ~91,700, while ~53,000 New Zealand citizens left the country. Seasonally adjusted monthly net migration rose to 2,790 in October, up from a revised 2,190 in September.
  • NZGBs yields are flat to 2bps cheaper this morning, the 2yr is +0.3bps at 3.714%, while the 10yr is 1.7bps at 4.389%. The 3s10s curve is +3bps at 61.8, having now steepened 18bps this month.
  • The OIS market has 43bps of cuts priced in for the Feb meeting this has held steady most of the week. There is a cumulative 108bps of cuts priced in through to October 2025.
  • There is nothing else on the local calendar today
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