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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNZGBS: FOMC Decision & GDP Miss Sparks A Ferocious Rally
NZGBs closed 22-29bps richer across benchmarks, with the 5-year leading, after Q3 GDP surprised on the downside printing -0.3% q/q (-0.6% y/y) versus expectations of +0.2% (+0.5%). Q2 was revised down 0.4pp to 0.5% q/q and 0.3pp to 1.5% y/y.
- The expenditure measure of GDP was weak falling 0.7% q/q but this was after a strong +0.9%. All of the main components fell with private consumption down 0.6% q/q, government spending -1.8%, GFCF -3.4% and the net export contribution -0.5pp.
- While the RBNZ predicted +0.3% q/q in its November update, it did have -0.3% in August. This outcome is likely to mean that the risk of another hike, which the RBNZ threatened at its last meeting, is highly unlikely as demand is moving more in line with supply.
- NZGBs were 13-20bps richer in post-GDP dealings.
- Swap rates closed 21-29bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing shunted 6-40bps softer across meetings, with Nov’24 leading. The market now prices 103bps of easing by Nov’24.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.