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NZGBS: Global Bias Applies Modest Cheapening Pressure

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The move higher in U.S. Tsy & German Bund yields observed at the backend of last week spilled over into Monday trade, subsequently applying some pressure to NZGBs in early Tuesday dealing, with the benchmarks running 3.0-4.5bp cheaper as the curve bear steepens.

  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp higher, back from their early session highs.
  • Local data flow has seen a slowing in the rate of expansion in the latest BusinessNZ PSI print, with the collators noting that “December marked a significant slowdown in a short space of time for the PSI, although the loftiness in New Orders/Business suggested there was still a lot of demand- side pressure at play.”
  • Political matters continue to dominate headlines, but these are second order (at best) considerations for markets given the domestic and macro backdrops.
  • Tomorrow’s Q4 CPI data presents the domestic highlight of the week, with near-term RBNZ dated OIS pricing steady this morning, showing ~65bp of tightening for next month’s meeting, alongside a terminal OCR of just over 5.45%.
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The move higher in U.S. Tsy & German Bund yields observed at the backend of last week spilled over into Monday trade, subsequently applying some pressure to NZGBs in early Tuesday dealing, with the benchmarks running 3.0-4.5bp cheaper as the curve bear steepens.

  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp higher, back from their early session highs.
  • Local data flow has seen a slowing in the rate of expansion in the latest BusinessNZ PSI print, with the collators noting that “December marked a significant slowdown in a short space of time for the PSI, although the loftiness in New Orders/Business suggested there was still a lot of demand- side pressure at play.”
  • Political matters continue to dominate headlines, but these are second order (at best) considerations for markets given the domestic and macro backdrops.
  • Tomorrow’s Q4 CPI data presents the domestic highlight of the week, with near-term RBNZ dated OIS pricing steady this morning, showing ~65bp of tightening for next month’s meeting, alongside a terminal OCR of just over 5.45%.