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Free AccessNZGBS: Little Changed, US Tsys Slightly Cheaper Ahead Of Today’s NFP Data
In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1bp richer with US tsys cheaper beyond the 2-year. US yields are currently dealing 1bp richer to 4bps cheaper after a directional session. There was a delayed bid in rates after in-line weekly jobless claims data spurred buying/short covering ahead of Friday's headline employment data. However, that positive impetus faded later in the session.
- Initial Jobless Claims printed in line with expectations: 220k vs. 220k est, 219k prior revised from 218k), Continuing Claims lower than expected: 1.861M vs. 1.910M est, 1.925M prior/revised.
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q4 reversed yesterday’s minor increase, now seen back at 1.2% for the joint lowest seen in the Q4 vintage. It follows the sharp 5.2% increase seen in Q3, which followed an average 2.2% annualized in 1H23.
- The focus remains on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data for November after this week's lower-than-expected JOLTS and ADP data rekindled early 2024 rate cut projections. Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 186k in November, up from 150k in October.
- Crude prices have struggled for direction today, with WTI largely unchanged.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged across meetings.
- Today, the local calendar sees Q3 Manufacturing Activity.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.