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Free AccessNZGBS: Richer As US Tsys Extend Their Rally
In local morning trade, NZGBs have bull-flattened, with yields flat to 7bps lower, after the yield on the US Tsy 10-year dropped 11bps to 3.79% - the lowest level since mid-July. The ball started rolling after the Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-11 vs. -3 est, -5 prior) and Business Conditions (0.0 vs. -9 prior) printed the lowest reading since April. US Tsys continued to advance after a decent $58bn 5Y sale traded through (3.801% high yield vs. 3.812% WI, 2.50x bid-to-cover).
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 gained momentum: March 2024 has fully priced in a full 25bp cut, with a cumulative -54bps by May 2024 and -167bps by December 2024.
- Later today the US calendar sees Weekly Claims, Retail/Wholesale Inventories and Home Sales. The US Treasury wraps up 2023's supply with a $40bn 7Y Note auction.
- Swap rates are 7-9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve slightly flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings out to Jul’24 but 7bps softer beyond. The market now has 116bps of easing priced by Nov’24.
- Today, the local calendar is empty.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.