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NZGBS: Richer, US Data Misses, Business Confidence Due

BONDS

NZGBs are 2-3bp richer in local morning trade after US tsy yields finished ~1bp lower across benchmarks. Front-end tsys pared more than half of their gains seen on surprise downward revisions for GDP growth (2.1% versus 2.4% prior) and core PCE inflation (3.7% versus 3.8% prior) in Q2, along with ADP missing (177k versus 195k expected) shortly beforehand albeit with a caveat of an upward revision.

  • Near-term Fed Funds implied rates reversed most of the hit from the softer US data but are down notably on pre-JOLTS levels. They show +3bp for Sept and a cumulative +12bp for Nov to 5.45% terminal, down from 5.5bp from pre-JOLTS levels. Cuts from the terminal are seen at 49bp to Jun’24 and 121bp to Dec’24.
  • The focus now turns to the release of the July PCE deflator and weekly Jobless Claims data later today.
  • Swap rates are 2bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bp softer across meetings, with May'24 leading.
  • Today the local calendar sees ANZ Business Confidence, with a subpar set of numbers expected, consistent with recessionary conditions.
  • Today the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 0.25% May-28 bond, NZ$175mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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