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NZGBS: Sharply Cheaper After The RBNZ Lifts OCR Profile Out To Mar’25

BONDS

NZGBs are sharply cheaper after the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.50% but lifted the OCR profile 20bps for Mar’25. The RBNZ believes the OCR will need to stay restrictive so that demand growth remains subdued and inflation returns to the 1-3% target range. Additionally, the RBNZ maintained it forecast that inflation will return to the 1-3% target by Q3 2024 but the level was nudged up to 2.9% from 2.7% previously. The RBNZ forecasts show no rate cut until mid-2025.

  • Swap rates 6-12bps higher since the decision, with the 2s10s curve 6bps flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 4-9bps firmer across meetings beyond Feb’24 after the decision.
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