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NZGBS: Short-End Moves Away From Session Cheaps After Business Opinion Survey

BONDS

After initially being pressured by US tsys’ overnight bear-steepening, NZGBs have moved away from the session’s worst levels, led by the short end. Currently, NZGB benchmark yields are flat to 5bps higher compared to 7bps higher earlier in the session.

  • The swaps curve has shifted from a bear-steepening to a twist-steepening, with rates 1bp lower to 4bps higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer, with 2025 meetings leading. A cumulative 33bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Earlier, the NZIER Business Opinion Survey for Q2 showed a net 44% of businesses expect the economy to get worse, from 25% with that view in Q1. A net 28% of businesses reported a decline in their own trading activity in Q2, with a net 10% of businesses expecting their own activity to worsen in Q3. A net 23% of firms raised prices in Q2, vs 35% in Q1.
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