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NZGBS: Slightly Cheaper After A Massive Post-RBNZ Rally

BONDS

NZGBs opened 2-4bp cheaper in line with the weaker close for US tsys in NY trade after FOMC Minutes showed policymakers split on further interest-rate hikes. After the bell 2-year and 10-year US tsys were +6bp and +5bp respectively.

  • Local trade is expected to continue reflecting the impact of the RBNZ’s decision to signal a probable peak in the OCR at 5.50%. Prior to the announcement, market expectations for the terminal rate were 5.93%. Yesterday, NZGBs experienced a decrease of 11-33bp with the 2/10 curve 22bp steeper.
  • In a speech to a parliamentary committee this morning, RBNZ Governor Orr stated that the Monetary Policy Committee is confident that current rate settings will tame inflation with “Indicators of consumer spending and aggregate demand as a whole easing, in fact in some places falling, certainly in real terms”. Yesterday’s much weaker-than-expected retail sales ex-inflation are a case in point. (link)
  • Swap rates opened 3-5bp higher with the 2s10s curve 2bp steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS opened flat to 5bp firmer but remain 25-30bp softer than pre-RBNZ levels.
  • The local calendar is light today.
  • The NZ Treasury plan to sell NZ$200mn of the May-28 bond, NZ$150mn of the Apr-33 bond and NZ$50mn of the May-51 bond today.
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