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NZGBS: Weaker, US Tsys Cheaper After Inflation Uptick

BONDS

NZGBs opened 7bp weaker following the rise in US Tsys yields driven by an uptick in inflation. Core PCE deflator Q1 advance printed +4.94% annualized, exceeding the consensus estimate of +4.7%. This implies that the March reading, which is set to be released later today, will likely show a rebound to +0.5% M/M (compared to the consensus estimate of +0.3%), following readings of +0.3% in February and +0.52% in January. Meanwhile, Q1 US GDP came in weaker than expected, at an annualised +1.1% Q/Q versus the consensus estimate of +1.9% conveying a stagflation-like message for the data.

  • Swap rates are 8-9bp higher with the 2s10s curve 1bp flatter and implied swap spreads 2-3bp wider.
  • RBNZ dated OIS opened 4-15bp firmer across meetings with late ’23/ early ’24 leading. May meeting is 2bp firmer at 22bp of tightening priced.
  • ANZ Consumer Confidence has unexpectedly increased by 2.1% M/M in April, despite the continued pessimism revealed by yesterday's ANZ business confidence survey. However, the overall level of confidence remains low, reflecting the impact of rising costs and worsening household balance sheets.
  • In Australia, Private Sector Credit and PPI data are slated.
  • Elsewhere, the BoJ is scheduled to deliver its Policy Decision.
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