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NZGBS: Yields Lower After US Tsys Finish Modestly Richer

BONDS

In early local trading, NZGBs are 2bp richer after US tsys finished modestly firmer, near the lower half of a narrow NY session range. Although there was no specific headline driving the reversal from the early session highs, several factors influenced the market. These factors encompassed incoming Treasury auctions, an increase in high-grade corporate debt issuance accompanied by rate lock-hedge sales, and positioning related to the start of a new month and quarter-end.

  • Tsys extended their inversion with 2/10 curve reaching -104.5, nearing March 40-year+ low around -111.0. Some of this weakness is likely the result of anticipation of heavy front-end supply.
  • Swap rates are 3bp lower with implied swap spreads tighter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bp softer in early local trading with terminal OCR expectations at 5.64%.
  • The employment confidence index fell 3.9 points to 105.6 in Q2, according to Westpac and McDermott Miller. The gauge is at its lowest level since Q2 2021.
  • The local calendar is light until Thursday when the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey is to be released.
  • The Australasian calendar is also light today with Japan’s Coincident & Leading Indicators as the only releases.
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