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OBR: Real Living Standards To Fall 2.2% In 2022-3, Largest FY Fall On Record

UK

From March OBR Econ and Fiscal outlook: "With inflation outpacing growth in nominal earnings and net taxes due to rise in April, real livings standards are set to fall by 2.2 per cent in 2022-23 – their largest financial year fall on record – and not recover their pre-pandemic level until 2024-25."

  • Full document: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-mar...
  • OBR: "...despite higher inflation pushing up debt interest costs, borrowing is set to more than halve from its post-World War II high of £322 billion (15.0 per cent of GDP) in 2020-21 to £128 billion (5.4 per cent of GDP) in 2021-22, £55 billion less than we forecast in October."
  • "Public sector net debt excluding the Bank of England falls by 1.0 per cent of GDP in 2024- 25, a margin of £27.8 billion against the Government’s fiscal mandate, £10.3 billion greater than in our October EFO. And the current budget is in surplus by £31.6 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP), up £6.5 billion from October."
Figure 1. OBR Figures At A Glance

Source: OBR

Figure 2. Change in real household disposable income per person

Source: ONS, OBR

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