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Oct IP Signals Onset of Q4 Contraction

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE OCT INDUSTRIAL PROD. -2.0% M/M (FCST -1.5%); SEP +0.8%r M/M

EUROZONE OCT INDUSTRIAL PROD. +3.4% Y/Y (FCST +3.3%); SEP +5.1% Y/Y

  • Eurozone industrial production recorded a -2.0% m/m contraction in October, 0.5pp sharper than consensus and a substantial drop from the +0.8% m/m expansion recorded in September.
  • The sharp -10.7% m/m plunge in volatile Irish data implies that euro area IP was slightly less weak than the headline print suggests.
  • Compared to 2021 levels, industrial production remains elevated at +3.4% y/y.
  • In October, energy production slumped by -3.9% m/m, followed by durable consumer goods (-1.9%), intermediate goods (-1.3%), and capital goods (-0.6%). Only non-durable consumer goods remained expansionary, rising slightly at +0.3% m/m.
  • Persistently high energy prices and falling new orders as flagged by PMI data has signalled contractionary production since July, which has fed into falling production in today's data.
  • Improved production outlooks due to easing supply in the automotive industry are seen buffering IP, yet are unlikely to shield the euro area from an industrial recession into year-end.


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