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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORWAY
Norway October CPI-ATE came in line with the Norges Bank September forecast of 6.0% Y/Y after undershooting central bank expectations by -0.4pp in September.
- CPI-ATE came in at 6.0% Y/Y (vs 5.6% Y/Y cons; 5.7% prior) and 0.6% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; 0.4% prior). Headline CPI was 4.0% Y/Y (vs 3.5% cons) and 1.0% M/M (vs 0.5% cons). In unrounded terms, CPI-ATE was 5.97% Y/Y and 0.63% M/M.
- Looking at the details, the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels component was the largest M/M driver as expected, sitting at +2.4% M/M (vs -1.84% prior). This component still fell -2.6% Y/Y vs. -4.9% prior.
- Food prices also rose +0.9% M/M after a -1.23% print in September. In Y/Y terms, food inflation picked up to +8.5% Y/Y (vs +7.44% prior). Analysts had differing views on where food inflation would print, but this appears higher-than-expected and is a key contributor to the upside surprise in CPI-ATE.
- Overall, consumer goods ex-energy rose +6.9% Y/Y (vs 6+.52% prior), while serviecs ex-rent rose +6.3% Y/Y (vs +5.70% prior). In monthly terms, both components rose +0.7% M/M, after -1.2% for goods ex-energy and +0.1% for services ex-rent prior.
- On the surface, this will increase market expectations for a 25bp Norges Bank hike in December, after CPI moved back in line with Norges Bank September projections and overshot market consensus.
- NOK remains at the top of the G10 following the release, albeit with EURNOK and USDNOK off lowest levels at typing.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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