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October Inflation Data, Banxico Decision In Focus

MEXICO
  • October CPI data will be released tomorrow where the annual headline rate is expected to increase from 6.00% in Sep. and 6.12% in the latest Bi-weekly print to 6.19%.
  • The data will be the last piece of information before the November Banxico decision where currently the majority of analysts believe the board will vote for a 25bps hike of the key rate to 5.00%.
  • Interestingly, these forecasts are not unanimous. Currently 4 of 20 calling more a bolder 50bps hike to 5.25%, with Barclays and UBS among the minority.
  • Out late Friday, the latest Citibanamex survey saw Mexican analysts raise their 2021 year-end CPI estimate to 6.70% versus a prior reading of 6.50%. Despite this increase, there was a minor downtick in 2021 GDP projections and the survey still sees a 25bp hike as the outcome of Thursday's meeting.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views will be published tomorrow afternoon.
  • Released earlier today: Mexico Gross Fixed Investment Rose 13.9% Y/y in August; Est. 11.7%, prior 15.7%.
  • Industrial Production data for September is also scheduled for Thursday with Formal Job Creation figures on the docket for Friday.

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