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Odds Of A Technical Recession Are Rising Amid Inverted Yield Curve

  • Market prepares for CNB meeting next week (Nov 4), with policymakers likely to debate whether the central bank should hike by 50bps or 75bps.
  • The CNB surprised the market at its last meeting (Sep 30) by raising the policy rate by 75bps (vs. 50bps exp.) to 1.5% to curb the rising inflationary pressures.
  • As inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated until at least the end of this year, participants continue to price in aggressive hikes in the coming meetings.
  • However, the government recently decided to reintroduce some restrictions amid rising Covid cases, which could lead to a significant downward revision in growth expectations.
  • We saw that the Czech 2Y10Y yield has recently inverted, therefore increasing the odds of an economic downturn.
  • This morning, economic data showed that Czech economy decelerated by 2.8% YoY in the second quarter (vs. 3.2% exp.), down from 8.1% the previous quarter.

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