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BONDS: Off Highs As E-minis Stabilise

BONDS
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Broader risk-sentiment continues to dominate. Core global FI markets have ticked away from session highs as e-minis find a bit of a pre-market base over the last couple of hours.

  • Speculation linked to Chinese firm DeepSeek’s AI advancements continues to dominate discussions (details on feedthrough for chip capex, efficacy of sanctions on China and risks to U.S. tech dominance all getting some airtime).
  • The 7- to 10-Year zone leads the rally on the U.S., German & UK curves, with Tsys outperforming given perceived risks to U.S. tech.
  • Yields on the Tsy curve are 8-11bp lower. 1.5-3.0bp off lows. Benchmarks out to 20s registered fresh ’25 lows during the London morning rally.
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Broader risk-sentiment continues to dominate. Core global FI markets have ticked away from session highs as e-minis find a bit of a pre-market base over the last couple of hours.

  • Speculation linked to Chinese firm DeepSeek’s AI advancements continues to dominate discussions (details on feedthrough for chip capex, efficacy of sanctions on China and risks to U.S. tech dominance all getting some airtime).
  • The 7- to 10-Year zone leads the rally on the U.S., German & UK curves, with Tsys outperforming given perceived risks to U.S. tech.
  • Yields on the Tsy curve are 8-11bp lower. 1.5-3.0bp off lows. Benchmarks out to 20s registered fresh ’25 lows during the London morning rally.