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Off Lows For Modest Twist Steepening, 3Y Supply and Fedspeak Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have pulled back from overnight highs but still trade 2bp richer to 0.5bp cheaper. The twist steepening sees a pivot after 20s, leaving 2s10s at -30bps (+1.5bp) but only back to yesterday levels.
  • TYH4 at 110-28 it as the lower end of relatively narrow ranges on solid volumes of 325k, but remains above yesterday’s 110-22+ in a move that pierced the bear trigger at 110-26 (Jan 19 low). Further support is seen at 110-16 (Dec 13 low).
  • No data of note sees Fedspeak and 3Y supply headline the docket, the latter kicking the week off for coupon supply with 10s tomorrow and 30s on Thu. 3Y supply should provide a litmus test for demand after the recent run higher in Tsy yields since Friday's payrolls report.
  • Fedspeak: Mester (1200ET), Kashkari (1300ET) and Collins (1400ET) – see STIR comment for details.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $54B 3Y Note auction - 91282CKA8 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB bill auction (1130ET)
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