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GILTS: Off Lows, Global Cues Dominate

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Cross-market cues dominate this afternoon after bears failed to force a retest of late morning lows in futures.

  • Softer-than-expected U.S. PMI data leaves the contract +5 at 91.94.
  • Bearish technical setup remains in place in the contract, initial support and resistance located at 91.10/92.52
  • OI data pointed to fresh shorts being added in the contract on Thursday (~6.1K).
  • Yields now flat to 1bp lower on the curve.
  • BoE dated OIS showing ~67bp of cuts through year-end after pricing over 70bp of cuts earlier today.
  • We continue to expect cuts at the February and May decisions, with the market pricing 40bp of cuts through May.
  • SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0.
  • Little of note on the UK data calendar next week, with the scheduled BoE speak also set to provide little interest for markets, focusing on areas outside of pure monetary policy.
  • Supply set to come in the form of GBP1.5bln 1.125% Sep-35 I/L (Tuesday) and GBP3bln 0.875% Jul-33 green gilt (Wednesday).
  • Elsewhere, the BoE will come to market with GBP550ln of APF sales from the long maturity bucket (Monday).

BoE Meeting

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Cross-market cues dominate this afternoon after bears failed to force a retest of late morning lows in futures.

  • Softer-than-expected U.S. PMI data leaves the contract +5 at 91.94.
  • Bearish technical setup remains in place in the contract, initial support and resistance located at 91.10/92.52
  • OI data pointed to fresh shorts being added in the contract on Thursday (~6.1K).
  • Yields now flat to 1bp lower on the curve.
  • BoE dated OIS showing ~67bp of cuts through year-end after pricing over 70bp of cuts earlier today.
  • We continue to expect cuts at the February and May decisions, with the market pricing 40bp of cuts through May.
  • SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0.
  • Little of note on the UK data calendar next week, with the scheduled BoE speak also set to provide little interest for markets, focusing on areas outside of pure monetary policy.
  • Supply set to come in the form of GBP1.5bln 1.125% Sep-35 I/L (Tuesday) and GBP3bln 0.875% Jul-33 green gilt (Wednesday).
  • Elsewhere, the BoE will come to market with GBP550ln of APF sales from the long maturity bucket (Monday).

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less