May 23, 2024 08:47 GMT
Off Lows On Domestic PMIs
GILTS
Gilts and SONIA futures move off lows in the wake of the domestic PMI data.
- The survey saw less focus on cost passthrough, but that was due to a slowdown in input cost inflation. There was a continued reduction in increases in services prices as a result, although goods producers saw their highest output prices in a year.
- Those services price snippets and the softer-than-expected services PMI reading drive post-market reaction.
- Gilt futures last -18 at 96.81 (lows of 96.58).
- Cash gilt yields are 1-3bp higher vs. yesterday’s closing levels, still bear flattening on the day.
- SONIA futures are 0.25 to 3.0bp lower on the day.
- Less than 2bp of easing is priced into BoE-dated OIS through the June MPC meeting, with ~34.5bp showing through year end.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.188 | -1.2 |
Aug-24 | 5.104 | -9.6 |
Sep-24 | 5.037 | -16.3 |
Nov-24 | 4.933 | -26.7 |
Dec-24 | 4.856 | -34.4 |
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