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Off Midweek Lows, Higher Weekly Claims Sets Stage for Friday PCE

US TSYS
  • Treasuries finish higher Thursday, near highs after higher than expected weekly jobless claims triggered rebound off midweek lows.
  • Treasury futures extend gains after weekly claims comes out a little higher than expected at 218k vs. 217k est (prior revised to 216k from 215k), continuing claims lower than expected at 1.791M vs. 1.796M est (prior down-revised to 1.797M from 1.794M). GDP in-line at 1.3% while Personal Consumption slips to 2.0% from 2.5% prior (2.2% est).
  • Treasury futures holding near early session highs after weaker than expected Pending Home Sales: MoM -7.7% vs. -1.0 est (3.4% prior revised to 3.6%), YoY -0.8% vs. -2.0% est (-4.5% revised to -4.4%).
  • Fed-speak leaned dovish as Atlanta Fed President Bostic (unscheduled) expects the pace of economic growth to slow, while a rate hike isn't necessary to reach 2Y goal.
  • Sep'24 10Y trades 108-17 last (+15) vs. 108-19 high -- initial technical resistance at 108-19 (High May 29). Curves remain flatter, inside session range: 2s10s -1.202 at -37.498.
  • Look ahead to Friday's data calendar: focus on PCE, Personal Income/Spending and MNI's Chicago PMI.
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