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Off Post-Auction Lows, Focus on Midweek CPI, FOMC

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  • Treasuries held lower levels by the close, just off session lows after the bell as stocks reversed early weakness. Rates held narrow ranges for most of the session, extending lows (TYU4 109-00.5, -9.5) after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CKV2) tailed 1.1bp: 4.659% high yield vs. 4.648% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover vs. 2.63x prior month (Jan high).
  • Relatively quiet start to the week, Treasuries are mirrored weaker EGBs after France President Macron called for snap election following weekend parliamentary elections.
  • While far-right forces made strong gains vs. the majority center-right European People’s Party (EPP) in EU elections, Treasury futures pared losses ahead of Wednesday's May CPI and FOMC policy announcement.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently trading -5.5 at 109-04.5 -- inside 8-tic range: 109-00.5 low/109-08.5 high. Friday's sharp sell-off undermines the recent bullish theme, highlighting a potential bearish reversal. The TYU4 contract breached both the 50- and 20-day EMA, while continued decline would strengthen a bearish threat at at 108-27.5 (June 3 low).
  • Cash yields are currently mildly higher: 5s +.0141 at 4.4767, 10s +.0296 at 4.4631%, 30s +.0354 at 4.5900%, while curves are steeper: 2s10s +3.804 at -41.735, 5s30s +2.131 at 11.161.
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  • Treasuries held lower levels by the close, just off session lows after the bell as stocks reversed early weakness. Rates held narrow ranges for most of the session, extending lows (TYU4 109-00.5, -9.5) after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CKV2) tailed 1.1bp: 4.659% high yield vs. 4.648% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover vs. 2.63x prior month (Jan high).
  • Relatively quiet start to the week, Treasuries are mirrored weaker EGBs after France President Macron called for snap election following weekend parliamentary elections.
  • While far-right forces made strong gains vs. the majority center-right European People’s Party (EPP) in EU elections, Treasury futures pared losses ahead of Wednesday's May CPI and FOMC policy announcement.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently trading -5.5 at 109-04.5 -- inside 8-tic range: 109-00.5 low/109-08.5 high. Friday's sharp sell-off undermines the recent bullish theme, highlighting a potential bearish reversal. The TYU4 contract breached both the 50- and 20-day EMA, while continued decline would strengthen a bearish threat at at 108-27.5 (June 3 low).
  • Cash yields are currently mildly higher: 5s +.0141 at 4.4767, 10s +.0296 at 4.4631%, 30s +.0354 at 4.5900%, while curves are steeper: 2s10s +3.804 at -41.735, 5s30s +2.131 at 11.161.