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Official PMIs Out Sunday, Manufacturing Forecast To Print Above 50.0

CHINA DATA

China official PMIs for March print on Sunday. The market looks for improvement in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing outcomes.

  • The manufacturing PMI is projected at 50.1, versus 49.1 prior. The forecast range is 49.2 to 50.3. The non-manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge up to 51.5 from 51.4, (forecast range is 50.1 to 52.5).
  • Manufacturing activity is expected to have lifted post the LNY from Feb, although headwinds are still evident in terms of the steel industry and weaker iron ore levels. Any meaningful upside in the property market also doesn't appear evident yet. Bloomberg notes as well oil refinery run rates continued to slow in March.
  • More broadly, we have seen some positive China data signs with IP and Fixed asset investment surprising on the upside, so that may help parts of manufacturing.
  • On the services side, construction headwinds and a potential slowdown in consumer spending related activity post the LNY may need to be offset elsewhere to see the index rise.
  • The Citi China activity surprise index (CESICNY on BBG) has risen a touch from earlier 2024 lows and is back in positive territory. Still a V shape recovery is not evident in this index. Such a rebound may be needed to spark a round of growth forecast upgrades.
  • The recent Bloomberg consensus survey had 2024 growth at 4.6%, which is up only slightly from Jan levels (4.5%).
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