Free Trial

OI Points To Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In SOFR Futures After PPI

STIR

The combination of yesterday’s uptick in most SOFR futures and preliminary OI data points to net short cover dominating in the whites and reds (it is hard to be sure with the whites given the unchanged price status of SFRH4 & M4, while net long setting was seen in SFRU4 & Z4).

  • Further out, there seemed to be a very light bias towards long setting in the green and blue packs, with pockets of net short cover also seen.
  • The two-way nature of the immediate price action that followed the PPI release and proximity to today’s CPI data likely limited the size of the net positioning swings.
  • A reminder that the initial hawkish reaction to yesterday’s firmer-than-expected headline PPI readings was more than countered by the largely negative revisions in the same dataset and less worrying feedthrough into PCE.
  • Market implied pricing for the Fed rate path stuck to recent ranges as a result.
  • We will cover U.S. short end positioning in a little more detail ahead of today’s CPI release.
14-May-2413-May-24Daily OI ChangeDaily OI Change In Packs
SFRH4938,599956,985-18,386Whites-11,331
SFRM41,109,0571,120,533-11,476Reds-25,835
SFRU41,103,5961,093,827+9,769Greens+1,037
SFRZ41,213,4791,204,717+8,762Blues+2,547
SFRH5789,758798,471-8,713
SFRM5782,132788,745-6,613
SFRU5705,086713,197-8,111
SFRZ5825,619828,017-2,398
SFRH6513,961513,421+540
SFRM6529,882531,997-2,115
SFRU6420,079419,179+900
SFRZ6362,565360,853+1,712
SFRH7250,023248,574+1,449
SFRM7184,852182,929+1,923
SFRU7173,906175,062-1,156
SFRZ7150,170149,839+331
252 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The combination of yesterday’s uptick in most SOFR futures and preliminary OI data points to net short cover dominating in the whites and reds (it is hard to be sure with the whites given the unchanged price status of SFRH4 & M4, while net long setting was seen in SFRU4 & Z4).

  • Further out, there seemed to be a very light bias towards long setting in the green and blue packs, with pockets of net short cover also seen.
  • The two-way nature of the immediate price action that followed the PPI release and proximity to today’s CPI data likely limited the size of the net positioning swings.
  • A reminder that the initial hawkish reaction to yesterday’s firmer-than-expected headline PPI readings was more than countered by the largely negative revisions in the same dataset and less worrying feedthrough into PCE.
  • Market implied pricing for the Fed rate path stuck to recent ranges as a result.
  • We will cover U.S. short end positioning in a little more detail ahead of today’s CPI release.
14-May-2413-May-24Daily OI ChangeDaily OI Change In Packs
SFRH4938,599956,985-18,386Whites-11,331
SFRM41,109,0571,120,533-11,476Reds-25,835
SFRU41,103,5961,093,827+9,769Greens+1,037
SFRZ41,213,4791,204,717+8,762Blues+2,547
SFRH5789,758798,471-8,713
SFRM5782,132788,745-6,613
SFRU5705,086713,197-8,111
SFRZ5825,619828,017-2,398
SFRH6513,961513,421+540
SFRM6529,882531,997-2,115
SFRU6420,079419,179+900
SFRZ6362,565360,853+1,712
SFRH7250,023248,574+1,449
SFRM7184,852182,929+1,923
SFRU7173,906175,062-1,156
SFRZ7150,170149,839+331