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OIL: China’s Peak Oil Demand Looms: Platts

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While analysts have differing views in China’s oil demand peak, there is broad agreement that the decline will not be so dramatic as to trigger a sharp downturn in global oil demand, Platts said.

  • Platts forecasts that China’s total refined product demand, excluding direct crude burn and NGLs, will peak in 2027 at 16.4m b/d. It consumed 15.5m b/d in 2023.
  • Global refined product demand is forecast to peak in 2028 at 91.5m b/d, compared to 88.4m b/d in 2023.
  • Average utilisation at Shandong’s teapots fell to 52% in June 2024, the lowest since March 2020.
  • Gasoil demand has already peaked or is close to plateauing as growing sales of LNG-powered trucks displace diesel.
  • An earlier than expected peak for refined products would lead to a decline in crude imports until demand surges for petrochemicals. This is unlikely to happen until 2027, while current economic conditions are stifling petchem demand.
  • China’s appetite for medium sour crudes is unlikely to change for at least the next five years, Platts said.

 

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While analysts have differing views in China’s oil demand peak, there is broad agreement that the decline will not be so dramatic as to trigger a sharp downturn in global oil demand, Platts said.

  • Platts forecasts that China’s total refined product demand, excluding direct crude burn and NGLs, will peak in 2027 at 16.4m b/d. It consumed 15.5m b/d in 2023.
  • Global refined product demand is forecast to peak in 2028 at 91.5m b/d, compared to 88.4m b/d in 2023.
  • Average utilisation at Shandong’s teapots fell to 52% in June 2024, the lowest since March 2020.
  • Gasoil demand has already peaked or is close to plateauing as growing sales of LNG-powered trucks displace diesel.
  • An earlier than expected peak for refined products would lead to a decline in crude imports until demand surges for petrochemicals. This is unlikely to happen until 2027, while current economic conditions are stifling petchem demand.
  • China’s appetite for medium sour crudes is unlikely to change for at least the next five years, Platts said.

 

Keep reading...Show less