MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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OIL: Declining US Production from Q4 to Support Brent: Rabobank

OIL

“Declining US production in Q4 and a slow-walk back of returning OPEC+ supply” will support Brent prices although summer upside is limited by fuel demand, according to Rabobank.

  • Brent is forecast at $85/bbl in Q3 2024 and $86/bbl in Q4 2024 before gradually rising to $94/bbl in Q4 2025.
  • The return of some OPEC supply in Q4 will coincide with a likely drop in US crude production below 13mbpd.
  • US oil well productivity is declining with gains in efficiency “merely a front-loading of production into the first six months, with sharp declines as the play matures.”
  • Crude has recovered since the first week of June amid heavy reinforcement from OPEC ministers stressing supply would only return if the market can bear it.
  • The analysts are less positive on strong refined products demand this summer with diesel demand consistently underperforming and gasoline demand is adequate.
  • Lighter distillate cracks are kept elevated by strong and rising jet-fuel demand, likely to 7mb/d this summer.
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