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Oil Deficit to Boost Prices in Summer Amid Higher Refining Capacity: ESAI

OIL

The oil market is poised to tilt into a deficit during the summer in the western hemisphere with the ramp-up of new refineries in Mexico and Nigeria according to ESAI Energy.

  • The changing balance will encourage higher prices with ICE Brent forecast to peak in August at $88.20/bbl and Nymex WTI at $83/bbl.
  • The ramp up of Pemex’s Dos Bocas facility in Mexico and the Dangote refinery in Nigeria will help raise global capacity by 1.9mb/d this year. The increase will add to a typical increase in US utilisation rates during the summer to meet demand for the driving season.
  • Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.5mb/d in 2024, excluding strategic stocking which would add another 100kb/d.
  • US output is estimated at 13.4mb/d by year while growth in Latin America will be led by 463kb/d from Brazil and Guyana.
  • Canada will add +200kb/d following the start up of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline which will alleviate bottlenecks.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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