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OIL: EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Build, Product Draws Expected

OIL
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.3mbbl, gasoline to draw 0.57mbbl and distillates to draw 1.72mbbl for the week to Oct. 4, a Bloomberg survey shows.
  • US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week driven by a much larger than expected decline in refinery runs and supported by an increase in production to 13.3mb/d despite some limited disruption due to Hurricane Helene. Refinery utilisation fell more than expected down to 87.6% of capacity and below 90% in all PADD regions amid maintenance. Utilisation is expected to fall a further 0.20% this week.
  • Last week saw higher crude imports from Latin America while Middle East supply fell to the lowest since January. Cushing stocks are starting to recover from the lows in mid September and API data suggests another build this week. SPR levels continue to rise with another 0.3mbbl added this week to 382.9mbbl.
  • Gasoline stocks last week built with a drop in implied demand offsetting a decline in production and an increase in net exports. Four week implied gasoline demand continues to follow the seasonal trend lower to remain just below the previous five year average. Hurricane Milton has resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 with 16.5% of stations in Florida with no gasoline, according to GasBuddy although likely impacting next week’s data. US gasoline demand fell by 1.7% w/w in the week to Oct. 5 to 8.58mb/d according to GasBuddy.
  • Distillates inventories fell last week amid a drop in production from refinery maintenance and despite lower implied demand and higher exports. PADD 4 inventories are the lowest in nearly two years. Four week average implied distillate demand fell back below the previous five year seasonal average.
  • The API data yesterday showed a large crude build of nearly 11mbbl, a Cushing build of 1.36mbbl, gasoline draw of 0.56mbbl and distillates draw of 2.6mbbl.
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.3mbbl, gasoline to draw 0.57mbbl and distillates to draw 1.72mbbl for the week to Oct. 4, a Bloomberg survey shows.
  • US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week driven by a much larger than expected decline in refinery runs and supported by an increase in production to 13.3mb/d despite some limited disruption due to Hurricane Helene. Refinery utilisation fell more than expected down to 87.6% of capacity and below 90% in all PADD regions amid maintenance. Utilisation is expected to fall a further 0.20% this week.
  • Last week saw higher crude imports from Latin America while Middle East supply fell to the lowest since January. Cushing stocks are starting to recover from the lows in mid September and API data suggests another build this week. SPR levels continue to rise with another 0.3mbbl added this week to 382.9mbbl.
  • Gasoline stocks last week built with a drop in implied demand offsetting a decline in production and an increase in net exports. Four week implied gasoline demand continues to follow the seasonal trend lower to remain just below the previous five year average. Hurricane Milton has resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 with 16.5% of stations in Florida with no gasoline, according to GasBuddy although likely impacting next week’s data. US gasoline demand fell by 1.7% w/w in the week to Oct. 5 to 8.58mb/d according to GasBuddy.
  • Distillates inventories fell last week amid a drop in production from refinery maintenance and despite lower implied demand and higher exports. PADD 4 inventories are the lowest in nearly two years. Four week average implied distillate demand fell back below the previous five year seasonal average.
  • The API data yesterday showed a large crude build of nearly 11mbbl, a Cushing build of 1.36mbbl, gasoline draw of 0.56mbbl and distillates draw of 2.6mbbl.