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Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rangebound

OIL

Crude has extended losses during US hours and is trading lower on the day. However, WTI is set for a net gain on the week. Today’s support comes from a weaker US dollar and from the ongoing drawdown in global inventories ad supply tightness from OPEC+ cuts.

  • WTI NOV 23 down -1.2% at 90.63$/bbl
  • U.S. Rig Count fell by 7 on the week to 623, according to Baker Hughes Sep. 29.
  • US Crude Production reached its second highest ever level in July, driven by a record high output from Texas’ Permian Basin.
  • US oil demand fell in the month of July to 20.12mbpd from a five-year seasonal high of 20.72mbpd in June 2023 but up compared to 19.93mbpd in Jul 2022 according to the latest monthly data from the EIA.
  • The Biden administration on Friday released its expected plan to phase down oil and gas auctions in federal waters with a release that includes a maximum of three sales in the Gulf of Mexico through 2029.
  • *YELLEN: RUSSIA OIL PRICE SUGGESTS REDUCED EFFECTIVENESS OF CAP - bbg
  • China PMIs for September are due tomorrow with optimism of a demand boost from the upcoming China Golden Week holiday period.
  • India’s crude oil import from Russia rebounded in September to 1.55mbpd, up by 16% in August, which was a seven-month low, as prices fell against Middle Eastern oil, LSEG data showed.
  • Britain is discussing the effectiveness of the price cap on Russian oil with G7 members due to the shift in global oil prices according to UK treasury minister Joanna Penn.
  • Brent crude futures open interest falls back from the highest since October 2021 seen last week. ICE Brent is back at 2.267m from a high of 2.335m on 21 Sep. The end of this week has seen strong traded volumes with Brent averaging 1.58m on 27 and 28 Sep compared to the average for the month of 1.1m.
  • India’s crude oil output rose by 2.1% year on year in August, matching the July growth rate, data from Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed.
  • Urals crude exports from Oct. 1-10 from the Baltic Ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are set at 24 cargoes each comprising 100k mt, according to Bloomberg.
  • The price of Russian oil is continuing to rise well above the G7 price cap as oil markets rally on the back of the tight market supplies from the OPEC+ cuts according to Bloomberg.
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