Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises

Crude has softened from highs seen earlier in the day, in a volatile session, but is continuing to trade in positive territory. Fundamentals pointing to continued tightness in the physical market is providing upside. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar and concerns that interest rates and thus borrowing costs could rise further is limiting gains.

• WTI NOV 23 up 0.6% at 89.31$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.17$/bbl at 1.82$/bbl
• OCT 4 JMMC PREVIEW - OPEC+ ministers are set to meet Wednesday at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) but no changes in policy are expected with the group seemingly intent on tightening the market into Q4. Please see link below:
• https://marketnews.com/opec-jmmc-oct-4-preview-no-change-in-policy-expected
• The UAE won’t seek a higher OPEC+ production baseline before 2025 despite increasing its production capacity its Energy Minister Souhail al-Mazrouei said to reporters this week.
• Abu Dhabi’s state owned Adnoc has a crude production capacity of 4.65m b/d, according to Argus.
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by 200kbbls to 351.3mn barrels as of 29 September, DOE data showed.
• The Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico will continue to grow shale oil for several years according to Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub.
• Venezuela’s oil exports topped 800kbpd in September, the second highest monthly pace this year according to Refinitiv.
• US crude oil exports last month rose to 4.412mbpd, up by 3.1% month on month according to data from Vortexa, Kpler and US Customs compiled by Bloomberg.
• Saudi may raise its OSPs for Arab Light to Asia higher for a fifth straight month in November due to prolonged cuts and resilient demand based on a Reuters survey.
• Russian oil imports into India rose 15% m/m in September to 1.78mn bpd after reaching a seven-month low in August according to Kpler.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports climbed to their highest level in three months during the week to Oct. 1, according to Bloomberg.
• Talks to restart Iraqi oil exports via a pipeline that runs through Turkey are ongoing according to a Reuters source.
• Oil prices need to recede to around $80/b to be good for consumers, according to India’s Oil Minister, Hardeep Puri.