Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Lower on Week

WTI is headed for US close 2.9% lower on the week. A downplayed Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran has eroded some of the geopolitical risk premium linked to regional supply fears. Nevertheless, front month is up day-on-day.

• WTI MAY 24 up 0.6% at 83.22$/bbl
• Israel and Iran have played down the significance of an overnight Israeli strike on a military facility near the Iranian city of Isfahan.
• US total oil and gas rig count rose by 2 on the week to 619 rigs, Baker Hughes. Oil: 511 (+5)
• Asia’s crude stock draws are slowing, while Europe sees some rebuilding – partially facilitated by refinery maintenance according to Vortexa.
• Saudi Arabia will require an average oil price of $96.20/bbl this year, if the producer decides to hold output steady close to 9.3mbpd: IMF.
• Russian crude STS activity reached 310k b/d in H1 April, up 120k b/d on the month to a 10-month high: Vortexa.
• China will likely face less competition for Venezuelan amid renewed sanctions: Platts.
• China’s demand for Iranian crude is unlikely to abate as the US considers new sanctions on Iranian oil exports: Platts.
• An escalation between Israel and Iran is not the base case for oil: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
• Any reintroduction of OPEC+ supply is likely gradual, maintaining a supply deficit in case of weaker H2 demand: Energy Intelligence.
• The IMF expects OPEC+ to start increasing oil output gradually from July.
• Global oil prices could spike on a further escalation of the Middle East conflict, but excess supply is providing a buffer IMF.
• Supertankers taking crude to China surged to a near year-high, according to Bloomberg.
• Angola’s outstanding crude cargoes for May are proving hard to sell, with sluggish interest for Nigerian cargoes too, according to Bloomberg.