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Free AccessOil, Gold Diverge as Rallying USD Outweighed by Saudi, Russian Production Cuts
- Crude prices finished the week on a particularly strong note, despite the overriding dollar rally into the Friday close. The rally in energy prices follows Russia's extended output cuts with Saudi Arabia expected to follow suit. WTI futures hit $85/bbl for the first time since November last year. Focus turns to any subsequent measures from OPEC+, although decisions made by independent nation states are the price drivers for now.
- The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and today’s gains reinforce this theme. Key resistance has been cleared at $84.16, the Aug 10 high. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and has opened $86.62, a Fibonacci projection point.
- In contrast with the oil price, spot gold faltered into the Friday close, coming under pressure from the steepening yield curve and the surging US dollar. The USD Index looks to resume the primary uptrend off the mid-July lows, a factor that should keep precious metals subdued despite the OIS-implied Fed rate path coming under pressure after the nonfarm payrolls release.
- Gains for gold are considered corrective at these levels, with initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.