Oil Market Summary

Crude markets remain flat after the EIA data release for the week ending 11 August showed higher than expected crude stock draws.

• Brent OCT 23 down -0.1% at 84.84$/bbl

• WTI SEP 23 down -0.1% at 80.91$/bbl

• WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.36$/bbl

• US Crude inventories drew larger than expected driven by a w/w increase in exports. Total exports rose by 1.684mbbl. PADD 3 crude stocks showed the largest draw by 4.931mnbbl. The oil adjustment figure was largely unchanged on the week after recent large figures.

• Crude inventories in the European ARA region rose by 427k bbl in the week ending 11 August to 61.9m bbl, above the five-year range, Genscape data show.

• A total of 673kbbls of open September 23 options positions on CME and ICE are due to expire against the September future close tomorrow. Current aggregate open interest is 344k calls and 328k puts. The open interest across all WTI options on both exchanges is currently 1.69m calls and 1.26m puts. The most significant open position at nearby strikes is just below the current market prices at the 80$/bbl strike prices with open interest of about 22k of calls and 18.5k of puts. Above the current market another 11k of open interest sits at the 84$/bbl strike and 15k at 85$/bbl.

• UBS has increased their year end Brent price forecast from 90$/bbl to 95$/bbl.

• Mid-month figures for global arrivals of Saudi crude stands at 7.2mbd in August, up by 1.1mbd from July.

• China will import around 1.5m b/d of Iranian crude in August, compared to an average of 917k b/d from Jan-July. This would also be the highest level since Kpler’s records began in 2013.

• Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell for a third consecutive month in June to 6.8mbpd, the lowest level since September 2021, while crude output was little changed on the month, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed.