Oil Markets Soft but Kurdish Supply Issues Support Weekly Rise

Oil Prices are softer this morning but the week has still cemented gains so far, supported by the ongoing issues between Iraq and Kurdistan that are unlikley to be resolved this week. The dispute has halted around 450,000 bpd of Kurdish oil leaving via Turkey.

• Brent MAY 23 down -0.1% at 79.16$/bbl
• WTI MAY 23 down -0.1% at 74.31$/bbl
• Gasoil APR 23 up 0.2% at 758$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.05$/bbl at -4.81$/bbl
• Despite this week’s recovery, oil still remains on track for a fifth monthly loss, primarily due to a banking crisis that rippled through markets earlier in the month - though fears surrounding further fallout have somewhat settled.
• Brent MAY 23-JUN 23 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.7$/bbl
• Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.84$/bbl
• Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 3.37$/bbl
• Ongoing French strikes and more resilient supply from Russia than expected have added bearish elements. Reuters reported earlier this week that Russian oil cuts only amounted to 300,000 bpd in the first three weeks of March, well below its 500,000 bpd target.
• The oil markets are watching for US inflation data later Friday for guidance on Fed monetary policy.
• OPEC+ meets Monday but there is little expectation for a change in market policy at present as the group waits to see how Chinese demand develops and how Russian oil is impacted by ongoing western sanctions. Saudis says the group is committed to current cuts until year end.
• US refinery margins have faced pressure this week, hit by signs of weak demand and signals that a deep period of refinery maintenance is coming to an end.
• US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 35.85$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 33.79$/bbl