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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Edging Towards Yesterday’s High

OIL
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Crude is edging back towards the high of $76.14/bbl yesterday with supply concerns from escalating Middle East conflict set against the unexpected US crude inventory build yesterday and market surplus risks from the planned increase in OPEC+ supply from December.

  • A surge in crude call options volatilities and volumes this week has taken the near term call-put skew back into positive territory reflecting the heightened upside price risk.
  • Crude curve backwardation has strengthened as futures have rallied on Middle East supply risks, but time spreads remain below levels seen for much of this year with a potential market surplus next year.
  • Repairs at Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan field have been postponed until October 7 the energy ministry said to Reuters on Thursday, suggesting a 4-day delay.
  • Russia crude production was below its monthly OPEC+ target at 8.97mb/d in September, according to Bloomberg sources familiar with the Energy Ministry figures.
  • Venezuelan crude and fuel oil exports slipped by almost 9% m/m in September following power outages and equipment shortages for PDVSA’s crude upgraders Reuters reports.
  • Crude supplies of 1.5mb/d could be taken off the market from a major strike on Iran’s oil-exporting capacity by Israel, according to Citigroup cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 247kb/d TotalEnergies Gonfreville refinery in northern France halted a production unit, according to a community alert issued late on Oct. 2.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 2% at 75.39$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 2.2% at 71.64$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.41$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.25$/bbl at 2.07$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 13.57$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.6$/bbl
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Crude is edging back towards the high of $76.14/bbl yesterday with supply concerns from escalating Middle East conflict set against the unexpected US crude inventory build yesterday and market surplus risks from the planned increase in OPEC+ supply from December.

  • A surge in crude call options volatilities and volumes this week has taken the near term call-put skew back into positive territory reflecting the heightened upside price risk.
  • Crude curve backwardation has strengthened as futures have rallied on Middle East supply risks, but time spreads remain below levels seen for much of this year with a potential market surplus next year.
  • Repairs at Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan field have been postponed until October 7 the energy ministry said to Reuters on Thursday, suggesting a 4-day delay.
  • Russia crude production was below its monthly OPEC+ target at 8.97mb/d in September, according to Bloomberg sources familiar with the Energy Ministry figures.
  • Venezuelan crude and fuel oil exports slipped by almost 9% m/m in September following power outages and equipment shortages for PDVSA’s crude upgraders Reuters reports.
  • Crude supplies of 1.5mb/d could be taken off the market from a major strike on Iran’s oil-exporting capacity by Israel, according to Citigroup cited by Bloomberg.
  • The 247kb/d TotalEnergies Gonfreville refinery in northern France halted a production unit, according to a community alert issued late on Oct. 2.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 2% at 75.39$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 2.2% at 71.64$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.41$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.25$/bbl at 2.07$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 13.57$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.6$/bbl