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OIL: Oil Supported by Hurricane and Middle East Risk as China Stimulus Assessed

OIL
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Crude prices have moderated slightly after gains yesterday to a Brent front month high of $75.87/bbl with uncertainty over whether China’s monetary easing will be enough to boost demand. Continued tensions in Israel/Lebanon and hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico are currently supporting prices. 

  • Israel reported today a missile from Lebanon over Tel Aviv was intercepted. Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday, killing a commander, and until now Hezbollah hasn’t used its longer range missiles on Israel. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a draw of 0.94mbbl after disruption due to Hurricane Francine in the week to Sept. 20. API data showed a crude stocks draw of 4.34mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks drew 3.44mbbl and distillates fell 1.12mbbl.
  • OPEC said Sep. 24 in its World Oil Outlook that phasing out oil was a ‘fantasy’ as it forecasts that demand will continue growing until at least 2050, Bloomberg reported.
  • Diesel cracks have followed the crude moves in recent days with support from refinery maintenance and possible run cuts, but margins remain under pressure due to tepid demand.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 0.3% at 74.94$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.4% at 71.26$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.72$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.96$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.57$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 20.7$/bbl
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Crude prices have moderated slightly after gains yesterday to a Brent front month high of $75.87/bbl with uncertainty over whether China’s monetary easing will be enough to boost demand. Continued tensions in Israel/Lebanon and hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico are currently supporting prices. 

  • Israel reported today a missile from Lebanon over Tel Aviv was intercepted. Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday, killing a commander, and until now Hezbollah hasn’t used its longer range missiles on Israel. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a draw of 0.94mbbl after disruption due to Hurricane Francine in the week to Sept. 20. API data showed a crude stocks draw of 4.34mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks drew 3.44mbbl and distillates fell 1.12mbbl.
  • OPEC said Sep. 24 in its World Oil Outlook that phasing out oil was a ‘fantasy’ as it forecasts that demand will continue growing until at least 2050, Bloomberg reported.
  • Diesel cracks have followed the crude moves in recent days with support from refinery maintenance and possible run cuts, but margins remain under pressure due to tepid demand.
    • Brent NOV 24 down 0.3% at 74.94$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 0.4% at 71.26$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.72$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.96$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.57$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 20.7$/bbl