MNI China Press Digest July 2: PBOC, FDI, Land Revenue

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY298 Bln Via OMO Tues; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1291 Tues; -0.09% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1291 TUES VS 7.1265

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, July 1

June CPI Below Market Expectations, Headline Y/Y At 2.4%

MNI: UK JUN BRC SHOP PRICES -0.2% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation Falls To Post-2020 Low

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Oil Prices To Fall After Peak Next Year: Rystad

OIL

Rystad forecast peak oil prices at 91$/bbl next year before dropping the next three to four years to as much as $50 primarily due to ample supply. US shale is predicted to plateau after reaching 15mbpd by 2026 although prices above 80$/bbl after 2026 could boost investment and output up to 18mbpd.

  • OPEC+ has succeeded in supporting prices by cutting output this year due to low US supply elasticity, but more US shale drilling would limit the effectiveness. The OPEC strategy cannot succeed long term according to Claudio Galimberti.
  • Rystad expects total US shale drilling rigs rising to 634 next year with an additional 60-70 rigs but still 70 below peak levels as focus remains on shareholder returns.
  • Global oil demand growth is forecast to fall from 3.7mbpd in 2022 to 2.4 mbpd this year, 1.2mbpd in 2025, and just 500,000 bpd in 2026, Galimberti said.
  • The global energy transition and new fossil fuel production investments will be reflected in prices beyond 2026 with the Brent price increasing after 2027.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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