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Oil Prices Weak In May, OPEC Meeting On Sunday

OIL
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Oil prices rose around a percent on Friday but were still lower on the week. They were supported by the lower US dollar with the USD index down 0.2%.

  • WTI rose 1.2% to $77.83/bbl and it has started today slightly lower at $77.78. The benchmark reached a low of $76.15 before trending higher to $78.05 but struggled to hold the break above $78. After falling 2.2% last week, it is now down 4.3% in May. A bearish theme remains intact with prices recently below the 50-day EMA. Initial support is at $76.36, May 15 low and resistance at $80.11, May 20 high.
  • Brent is 0.9% higher at $82.10/bbl to be down 2.3% on the week and 4.9% this month. It fell to a low of $80.65, below initial support of $80.93, before climbing to $82.46. The trend remains bearish with the next level to watch $80.24. Initial resistance is at $84.21, 50-day EMA.
  • The focus this week is on the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting which will now be held online and on June 2 – one day later than the original schedule. The group is widely expected to extend output cuts into H2 but until when and any changes to the details are unclear.
  • The US driving season has begun and gasoline demand will be monitored to see if growth in fuel efficiency and EVs is weighing on demand. But the EIA is showing jet fuel demand at its seasonal highest since 2019.
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Oil prices rose around a percent on Friday but were still lower on the week. They were supported by the lower US dollar with the USD index down 0.2%.

  • WTI rose 1.2% to $77.83/bbl and it has started today slightly lower at $77.78. The benchmark reached a low of $76.15 before trending higher to $78.05 but struggled to hold the break above $78. After falling 2.2% last week, it is now down 4.3% in May. A bearish theme remains intact with prices recently below the 50-day EMA. Initial support is at $76.36, May 15 low and resistance at $80.11, May 20 high.
  • Brent is 0.9% higher at $82.10/bbl to be down 2.3% on the week and 4.9% this month. It fell to a low of $80.65, below initial support of $80.93, before climbing to $82.46. The trend remains bearish with the next level to watch $80.24. Initial resistance is at $84.21, 50-day EMA.
  • The focus this week is on the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting which will now be held online and on June 2 – one day later than the original schedule. The group is widely expected to extend output cuts into H2 but until when and any changes to the details are unclear.
  • The US driving season has begun and gasoline demand will be monitored to see if growth in fuel efficiency and EVs is weighing on demand. But the EIA is showing jet fuel demand at its seasonal highest since 2019.