Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Reverses Gains

US gasoline cracks have reversed their earlier gains to be trading lower on the day. This is despite an unexpected draw in stocks. The US gasoline crack has followed the trajectory of crude, plummeting in late US hours.

• US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 16.38$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 35.19$/bbl
• Insights Global ARA stocks: Gasoil: +76 mt to 1,825k mt, Gasoline: -64k mt to 919k mt, Fuel Oil: +54k at 1,286k mt, Jet Fuel: -17k mt to 697k mt, Naphtha: +3k mt to 268k mt
• EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Dec 22: Gasoline stocks -669 vs Exp +65, Implied mogas demand +414, Distillate stocks +741 vs Exp +35, Implied dist demand +154
• Lower gasoline and diesel prices are expected in 2024 after two years of above average gas prices according to the GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook.
• GasBuddy expects the yearly national average will drop from $3.51/gal to $3.38/gal in 2024. Diesel prices are also predicted to fall incrementally from 2023, peaking at $4.13/gal in March 2024.
• Arrivals of European gasoline into the USA fell 20% on the week to a four-week low in the seven days to Dec. 21, according to Bloomberg.
• New York Harbour gasoline supplies could remain sufficient this winter if rising local production and USGC shipments outweigh weak Atlantic flows and logistical issues, according to Argus.
• Increasing refinery capacity in the Latam region and growing competition from Russia could squeeze US exports to the region in 2024, according to Platts.