Oil Products Summary at European Close: Diesel Cracks at 2-Month Low

Diesel cracks extend the recent decline with the US front month crack-spread falling to the lowest since July as demand concerns add to strong exports from China and India this month to offset the support from low inventories and refinery maintenance.

• US ULSD crack down -1.1$/bbl at 43.43$/bbl
• US gasoline crack down -0.9$/bbl at 14.13$/bbl
• The market impact of Russian diesel and gasoline exports ban appears to be relatively limited after Russia yesterday added some exclusions to the ban and with the measure widely expected to be short lived.
• Russia’s oil product exports hit a five-month high in the first 23 days of September, up 15% on August, according to Bloomberg and Vortexa.
• Exports of diesel from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk have slowed, a potential sign of the supply disruption caused by Russia’s ban on exports of the product.
• Nigeria’s 650kbpd Dangote oil refinery is likely to start operations in early 2024, FGE said in a note. Dangote plans to start operations in October.
• PetroIneos’ Lavera refinery has halted a unit based on a community alert.
• The likelihood of the measured water-level at Kaub falling below 100cm in October is as high as 70%, according to an official forecast.
• Germany’s diesel demand is being met despite supply squeezes, although Russia’s export ban could indirectly add further pressure in the coming weeks, according to Argus.