Oil Products Summary at European Close: Gasoline Cracks Climb

Gasoline cracks have strengthened on the day, driven by the declines in crude. Outright gasoline prices remain weaker amid a persistently bearish demand picture, with stocks rising in Europe.

• European diesel and gasoil imports are expected to reach 981kbpd in October, down by 42% on the year and 11% below September levels according to Bloomberg. This is largely due to a significant decline in shipments from the East, mainly Saudi Arabia and India, due to seasonal maintenance.
• RBOB NOV 23 down -0.9% at 2.26$/gal
• US gasoline crack up 1$/bbl at 10.76$/bbl
• Gasoil NOV 23 up 1% at 888$/mt
• US ULSD crack up 1.9$/bbl at 40.52$/bbl
• Oil product stockpiles in ARA according to Insights Global: Inventory type, latest level, weekly change (all in thousand metric tons) as follows: Gasoline: 1,409, +43; Naphtha: 212, +37; Gasoil: 1,750, -111; Fuel Oil: 1,055, +98; Jet Fuel: 697, -44;
• Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz said that the company’s refining margins would exceed previous forecasts amid better diesel strength, according to Bloomberg.
• Overproduction of US gasoline likely to be a problem into 2024. Domestic distillate demand plus exports suggests minimal inventory accumulation when refiners return from turnarounds next month.
• CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s independent refineries fell by 1.67 percentage points in the week to Oct. 26, averaging 68.14%, according to OilChem.
• Singapore’s middle distillate stocks rose above 8.5m bbl amid slowing net exports of gasoil, according to official data.
• Wider Arabian Sea clean products have fallen sharply so far month on month in October, Vortexa data showed.
• OPIS analysts are reporting a new 2023 low water marks for wholesale gasoline at US Gulf Coast, Chicago, and Group 3 (KS/OK/Great Plains refiners). Chicago wholesale gasoline may slip below $2/gal today. It is still profitable due to strong reported discounts on heavy Canadian crude of $25/bbl vs WTI, pricing at around $58/bbl yesterday.
• VALERO SEES WEST COAST GASOLINE SUPPLIES CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT -bbg
• VALERO SAYS 2024 MAINTENANCE TO BE A SERIES OF SMALL PROJECTS – bbg