Oil Products Summary at European Close: Gasoline Cracks Rise

US gasoline cracks are trading higher, supported by a stock draw and increase in demand to reverse an earlier decline. Four-week average implied demand is above the previous five-year average for the first time since July.

• US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 16.94$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 35.75$/bbl
• Insights Global ARA stocks: Gasoil: +76 mt to 1,825k mt, Gasoline: -64k mt to 919k mt, Fuel Oil: +54k at 1,286k mt, Jet Fuel: -17k mt to 697k mt, Naphtha: +3k mt to 268k mt
• EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Dec 22: Gasoline stocks -669 vs Exp +65, Implied mogas demand +414, Distillate stocks +741 vs Exp +35, Implied dist demand +154
• A mild winter will create a calm start to 2024 for European diesel markets, but ageing refinery capacity in the region and the risk of unplanned outages could keep markets volatile, according to Argus.
• Lower gasoline and diesel prices are expected in 2024 after two years of above average gas prices according to the GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook.
• GasBuddy expects the yearly national average will drop from $3.51/gal to $3.38/gal in 2024. Diesel prices are also predicted to fall incrementally from 2023, peaking at $4.13/gal in March 2024.
• Arrivals of European gasoline into the USA fell 20% on the week to a four-week low in the seven days to Dec. 21, according to Bloomberg.
• Neste's Porvoo oil refinery is facing a likely halt to production amid two planned days of labour strike action.
• Total is restarting production units at its Donges refinery on the west coast of France according to a community alert. No details were provided of the specific units.