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OIL PRODUCTS: Tax Rebate Change Likely to Restrict China Diesel Exports

OIL PRODUCTS
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China’s reduced export tax rebates should prolong tightness in diesel flows and provide a level of support for the Asian gasoil market according to FGE.

  • FGE estimates diesel export costs will rise by ~$4/bbl, eroding refiners’ export margins and capping China’s diesel outflows from December.
  • The consultant estimate’s that China’s gasoil/diesel exports should average 170k b/d in 1Q 2025, 50k b/d lower y/y.
  • China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction of tax rebate on exporting gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel to 9% from the current refund of 13%, according to a statement released Nov. 15.
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China’s reduced export tax rebates should prolong tightness in diesel flows and provide a level of support for the Asian gasoil market according to FGE.

  • FGE estimates diesel export costs will rise by ~$4/bbl, eroding refiners’ export margins and capping China’s diesel outflows from December.
  • The consultant estimate’s that China’s gasoil/diesel exports should average 170k b/d in 1Q 2025, 50k b/d lower y/y.
  • China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction of tax rebate on exporting gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel to 9% from the current refund of 13%, according to a statement released Nov. 15.