Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Regains Ground

Crude has reversed earlier losses to be trading higher on the day. The market is weighing broader risk appetite weakness and a stronger US dollar today against the tight supplies and inventory drawdowns due to OPEC+ production cuts.

• Brent NOV 23 up 0.7% at 93.94$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0.9% at 90.52$/bbl
• China demand will be in focus this week with PMI data due out at the end of the week and with a demand boost expected during the upcoming Goldan Week holiday period.
• WTI-Brent has narrowed this week to a peak of -3.2$/bbl yesterday with support from the ever decrease levels of Cushing storage.
• A total of 463mbbls of current open Nov23 Brent options positions are due to expire against the futures close today. Current open interest is 224k for calls contracts and 239k for puts. The aggregate open interest across all ICE Brent options is 1.560m of calls and 1.309m of puts contracts. Current positions show significant open call exposures currently at 95$/bbl and open call and put positions below the market at 91$/bbl and 90$/bbl.
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• There is no risk to Azerbaijan's oil infrastructure amidst the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict according to Kpler. Baku has reclaimed control of Nagorno-Karabakh without impacting oil infrastructure.
• Nigeria’s crude exports are set to gain by 12% m/m in November with exports from 14 grades showing 1.42mb/d for Nov, up from 1.27mb/d in October according to Bloomberg.
• Kuwait’s oil exports are shifting from crude oil to refined petroleum products following the addition of new refining capacity, according to EIA Country Analysis data.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports have been curbed by maintenance at export terminals. Shipments from Russia fell by 100k b/d to 3.2m b/d in the seven days to Sep. 24.