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On BAT's $ Deal - still cautious on € curve

CONSUMER STAPLES

BAT's $1.7b 7 & 10yr deal saw strong demand; books covered 5.8-5.9* & with high single to low double digit NICs - that's in stark contrast to Philip Morris' Friday deal that came with double digit NIC's & books only covered 2.7*. We see this as a $ specific dynamic and still cautious on tightness in €BAT.

* $BAT curve still gives +50bps on spread pickup vs. $PM - In line with that yest's deal priced +38/+33 over PM's 7/10yr from Friday (rates another +5 for yield investors). Again swapping to Euro its the local/€BAT curve that screens tight.

* BAT running its healthiest BS in years with a outlook upgrade (to stable) yesterday morning from S&P (largely retrospective) & management is (still) guiding to deleveraging - all likely reassurance for the investors to come in for the spread pickup (vs. PM & index). The optimist outlook (particularly in €BAT) isn't shared by equity holders who are (by nature) more forward looking - BAT trades at forward P/E of 6.5* (down from ~10* in mid '22 & vs. PM at 13*) despite a trailing dividend yield of ~9.5% (dividends have been unaffected).

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