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On Monday (13:50 BST) Morgan Stanley....>

EURO-DOLLAR
EURO-DOLLAR: On Monday (13:50 BST) Morgan Stanley recommended buying EUR/USD at
market with a target of $1.2100 & a stop at $1.1500.
- Morgan Stanley noted that "EUR/USD has rebounded from its August lows and the
rally looks poised to continue. EUR bears are largely focused on ongoing Italian
political uncertainty and the exposure of European banks to EMs but we argue
both of these risks are overblown. The eurozone's 3.5% current account surplus,
meanwhile, suggests that rising asset volatility should be EUR positive as the
foreign investments deployed abroad, largely in the US and in risk assets, lose
value and liquidation incentives increase. Investors are net long USD and short
EUR, suggesting further upside momentum as positioning shifts. Chairman Powell's
dovish Jackson Hole speech should weigh on USD as well. We also argue that USD
weakness may be furthered by China's re-establishment of its countercyclical
factor in its RMB fixing, which may support CNH and thus put downward pressure
on USD. Key risks to this trade include a dovish ECB response or weakening in
Eurozone data, weighing on the EUR."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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