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One Hike (25bps) Priced in For June 23 Meeting

CZECHIA
  • CNB is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 0.50% on June 23 following policymakers recent 'hawkish' comments in the past two weeks.
  • While headline inflation has broken above central banks' upper tolerance band in Hungary and Poland, CPI is now within the 1%/3% CNB range after ticking down to 2.9% in May.
  • Selling pressure on CZK has eased this week ahead of the policy meeting. USDCZK retraces lower after finding a high at 21.60 yesterday; next key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 21.84 (200D SMA). On the downside, first support stands at 21.46, followed by 21.23.
  • Little weakness in the USD yesterday has generated some support for Czech equities, with PX Index finding support slightly above the 1,150 level; important resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1,184, followed by psychological 1,200 level.
  • Czech 10 yield has been retracing slightly higher in the past week after failing to break below its 1.60% support; resistance on the topside stands at 1.74% (50D / 100D SMA). On the downside, first support below 1.60% stands at 1.52%.
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