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Only Half of 2024 Global Gas Demand Growth is Structural: IEA

NATURAL GAS

The 2024 global gas demand is forecast close to the average growth rate displayed during 2010-21 but only about half of that growth is structural according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.

  • Global demand is forecast to grow by 2.5% (100bcm) in 2024, with almost half driven by cooler weather and the recovery from the 2022 gas supply shock according to the IEA quarterly report last week. Emerging economies are leading the increase in consumption with Asia alone accounting for almost 40% of incremental demand.
  • An assumption of a return to average weather conditions accounts for over one-third of the demand growth in 2024.
  • A price-driven recovery in industry and power accounts for 15-20% of incremental gas demand in 2024.
  • The forecast suggests a return to a more pronounced growth rate after the 2022/23 gas supply shock of losing about 120bcm of supply in just two years.



Source: IEA

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