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STIR: Only Just Pricing 25bp Fed Cut In June

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are up to 1.5-2bp higher for Jun-Dec 2025 meetings overnight, helped by the stabilization in equity futures and crude oil futures lifting off yesterday’s lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 9bp May, 25bp Jun, 35bp Jul and 71bp Dec.
  • It leaves a rate path at the high end of wide ranges seen for the week, with 70bp of cuts for 2025 back to almost exactly where we ended last week having at one point priced almost 90bps late Mon/early Tue.
  • Growth concerns clearly weigh further out the curve though, with 2027 SOFR implied yields still 6-7bps lower on the week.
  • The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for March is likely watched again although partisanship has seen its quality called into question. 1Y expectations have spiked to 4.3% and 5-10Y have increased to a multi-decade high of 3.5% but these moves haven’t been reflected in the NY Fed’s equivalent survey for February. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are up to 1.5-2bp higher for Jun-Dec 2025 meetings overnight, helped by the stabilization in equity futures and crude oil futures lifting off yesterday’s lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 9bp May, 25bp Jun, 35bp Jul and 71bp Dec.
  • It leaves a rate path at the high end of wide ranges seen for the week, with 70bp of cuts for 2025 back to almost exactly where we ended last week having at one point priced almost 90bps late Mon/early Tue.
  • Growth concerns clearly weigh further out the curve though, with 2027 SOFR implied yields still 6-7bps lower on the week.
  • The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for March is likely watched again although partisanship has seen its quality called into question. 1Y expectations have spiked to 4.3% and 5-10Y have increased to a multi-decade high of 3.5% but these moves haven’t been reflected in the NY Fed’s equivalent survey for February. 
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